The Definition
Planning poker is a consensus-based estimation technique where team members simultaneously reveal their estimates using numbered cards. It's designed to prevent cognitive bias, encourage discussion, and produce more accurate estimates than individual guessing or group averaging.
Instead of the loudest voice dominating or junior developers blindly following seniors, planning poker ensures everyone contributes. The simultaneous reveal eliminates anchoring bias—where the first number spoken influences everyone else's thinking.
Why It Works
Prevents Anchoring Bias
Simultaneous reveal means no one is influenced by the first estimate. Everyone thinks independently.
Surfaces Hidden Complexity
When estimates vary widely, it reveals knowledge gaps. The conversation that follows is where real planning happens.
Democratizes Input
Junior and senior voices carry equal weight. Often the newest team member spots risks others missed.
Forces Clarity
If the team can't estimate it, the story isn't clear enough. Planning poker exposes vague requirements fast.
The Cards Explained (Fibonacci Sequence)
Planning poker uses a modified Fibonacci sequence: 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21. As numbers get larger, the gaps widen—reflecting increasing uncertainty in estimating complex work. Here's what each card means:
Fix a typo, update text
Change a color value, add a label
Add validation to a form field
Create a simple API endpoint
Build a basic CRUD feature
Design and implement authentication
Build a payment integration
Multi-week epic, needs breaking down
Not enough information to estimate
Team needs a pause
Why Fibonacci? The gaps between numbers increase as complexity grows because our ability to estimate accurately decreases. The difference between 1 and 2 is meaningful. The difference between 20 and 21 is noise.
Step-by-Step Process
Product Owner presents the story
The PO explains what needs to be built and why it matters. Team asks clarifying questions until everyone understands the scope.
Team discusses complexity
Developers talk through technical approach, edge cases, dependencies, and potential risks. No estimates yet.
Everyone picks a card secretly
Each team member selects their estimate without revealing it. This prevents anchoring bias.
Simultaneous reveal
All cards are shown at once. Wide variance means more discussion is needed. Consensus moves you forward.
Discuss outliers and re-vote
Highest and lowest estimators explain their reasoning. Team discusses, then votes again if needed.
Real Example Scenarios
Story: Add password reset functionality
We have auth already, need forgot password flow
Initial Votes
Template already exists, mostly config
Need email service integration
Security concerns, token expiry logic
Discussion
Mike asks: Do we have the email service? Sarah confirms yes. Alex raises token storage concerns. Team agrees it's closer to 5 once they clarify existing infrastructure.
Consensus reached after one discussion round
Story: Implement dark mode across the app
User-requested feature, affects all pages
Initial Votes
Every component needs updating
Plus user preference storage and testing
How many components do we even have?
Discussion
Team realizes they need to audit component count first. Casey suggests breaking into: audit (3), system design (5), implementation (8), testing (3).
Story broken down into manageable pieces
The Bottom Line
Planning poker isn't about getting perfect estimates—those don't exist. It's about creating a shared understanding of the work ahead. The conversation during estimation is more valuable than the number you land on.
When estimates diverge wildly, you've surfaced a knowledge gap. When everyone picks the same card immediately, you've got clarity. Both outcomes are wins. The process forces alignment before a single line of code is written.
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