Planning poker is simple in theory: team picks cards, discusses differences, converges on an estimate. In practice, teams struggle with sessions that drag forever, estimates that mean nothing, and debates that turn toxic.
The good news? Every failure mode has a fix. Most problems come from the same root causes: poor preparation, unclear roles, or missing psychological safety.
Here's how to diagnose what's broken and fix it before your team gives up on estimation entirely.
Common Failure Modes
Sessions Take Forever
Root Cause
Stories aren't refined before estimation. Team discovers requirements during the session.
The Fix
Pre-refine stories. PO clarifies acceptance criteria before planning poker. Team reads stories beforehand.
Prevention
Make refinement a separate meeting. Never estimate stories the team sees for the first time.
Everyone Picks the Same Number
Root Cause
Anchoring bias. One person (usually senior) picks first or speaks first, everyone else follows.
The Fix
Reveal cards simultaneously. Ban pre-discussion. Ask quieter team members to estimate first.
Prevention
Use a digital tool that forces simultaneous reveals. Physical cards need strict facilitation.
Estimates Are Always Wrong
Root Cause
Team estimates best-case scenarios only. No buffer for testing, code review, or unexpected issues.
The Fix
Define what "done" means. Include testing, review, documentation in estimates. Use relative sizing, not hours.
Prevention
Track velocity. Adjust estimates based on historical accuracy. Discuss what each number means.
Debates Become Arguments
Root Cause
Estimates become personal. People feel judged for their numbers. Lack of psychological safety.
The Fix
Reframe as team collaboration, not individual performance. Focus on learning, not being right.
Prevention
Facilitator enforces respect. No one mocks estimates. Curiosity over criticism.
Junior Devs Don't Participate
Root Cause
Intimidation. Juniors fear looking stupid or slowing down the session.
The Fix
Explicitly ask juniors for their perspective. Validate their contributions. Make it safe to ask questions.
Prevention
Rotate facilitator role. Create a culture where questions are encouraged.
Numbers Are Meaningless
Root Cause
No reference stories. Team never calibrated what each Fibonacci number represents.
The Fix
Create reference stories. "A 3 is like the login UI we did last sprint." Revisit these regularly.
Prevention
Start each session with reference story recap. Update references as team learns.
Product Owner Dictates Estimates
Root Cause
PO doesn't understand their role. Estimates should come from the people doing the work.
The Fix
PO clarifies requirements only. Team owns estimates. Facilitator enforces boundaries.
Prevention
Educate PO on planning poker principles. PO focuses on what, team estimates how much.
Team Skips It Entirely
Root Cause
Sessions were so painful that leadership decided to "save time" by skipping them.
The Fix
Fix the underlying problems first (see other failure modes). Reintroduce once process is healthy.
Prevention
Keep sessions short and valuable. If planning poker doesn't add value, fix it—don't skip it.
Diagnostic Checklist
Answer these questions honestly to identify what's broken:
Do sessions regularly exceed 20 minutes for 5-8 stories?
Do estimates converge without discussion?
Are actual story times consistently 2x+ your estimates?
Do only 2-3 people speak during sessions?
Does the Product Owner influence estimates?
Can the team explain what a "5" means?
Quick Fixes
Tactical changes you can implement in your next session:
Too Slow
Set a visible 2-minute timer per story
Anchoring
Use digital tool with simultaneous reveals
Inaccurate
Track velocity and adjust over time
Low Participation
Ask quietest person to estimate first
PO Interference
PO leaves after clarifying story
No Shared Understanding
Create 3-5 reference stories
Success Indicators
How to know if planning poker is working:
Sessions are efficient
What Good Looks Like
10-15 minutes for 5-8 stories. Team stays focused and engaged.
How to Measure
Track session duration. Ask team for feedback on pace.
Healthy debate happens
What Good Looks Like
Different estimates spark discussion. Team learns from each other. No one dominates.
How to Measure
Multiple people speak. Estimates sometimes change after discussion.
Estimates are consistent
What Good Looks Like
Similar stories get similar estimates. Team references past work.
How to Measure
Review historical estimates. Check for patterns.
Velocity is predictable
What Good Looks Like
Sprint velocity stabilizes within 20% variance. Team can forecast reliably.
How to Measure
Track velocity over 5+ sprints. Calculate standard deviation.
Everyone participates
What Good Looks Like
Junior and senior devs both contribute. Diverse perspectives emerge.
How to Measure
Count who speaks. Note who influences final estimates.
Team trusts the process
What Good Looks Like
Team uses estimates for planning. No one tries to skip sessions.
How to Measure
Ask directly: "Is planning poker valuable?" Listen for hesitation.
Prevention Strategies
The best fix is not needing one. Build these practices into your process:
Weekly Refinement Sessions
PO clarifies stories before planning poker. No surprises during estimation.
Rotate Facilitators
Different person leads each session. Prevents one voice from dominating.
Maintain Reference Stories
Update every quarter. Keep team calibrated on what each number means.
Track Velocity
Monitor actual vs estimated over time. Surface systematic bias.
Enforce Time Limits
Visible timer for each story. Defer complex items to parking lot.
Retrospect on Estimation
Every 3-4 sprints, ask: "Is planning poker still valuable?" Adjust as needed.
When to Stop Using Planning Poker
Sometimes the right answer is to stop. Consider alternatives if:
- •Your team does truly unique, unpredictable work every sprint (rare, but real)
- •The overhead of estimation outweighs the planning value
- •Team has tried fixes for 3+ months with no improvement
- •Leadership doesn't respect or use the estimates
- •Team is too small (2-3 people don't need formal planning poker)
Before you quit: Make sure you've tried fixing the root causes. Most teams give up on planning poker without addressing preparation, facilitation, or psychological safety.
The Bottom Line
Planning poker fails when teams confuse the ceremony with the goal. The point isn't to pick numbers—it's to surface assumptions, build shared understanding, and create realistic plans.
Most failure modes are fixable. Sessions that drag? Pre-refine stories. Anchoring bias? Simultaneous reveals. Inaccurate estimates? Track velocity and adjust. The fixes are simple, but they require discipline.
If you've tried everything and it still doesn't work, stop. But be honest about whether you've addressed the root causes or just the symptoms.
Fix It, Don't Skip It
Try planning poker the right way. Start with a clean slate and proper facilitation.
Create Free Room